IMD Update: Cyclone Arnab upgraded to 125-135 km/hr winds, 150 km/hr gusts

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Arnab may move west-northwest till this evening, and later northtwest, to cross Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, as a very severe cyclone

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 27, 2026 at 12:46 PM.

Satellite pictures on Tuesday morning showed very severe cyclone Arnab has developed a well-defined ‘eye’ (white spot at storm centre) as it paused a short distance off Visakhapatnam coast. | Photo Credit: www.windy.com

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded the wind speeds of very severe cyclone Arnab to 125-135 km/hr and gusting to 150 km/hr (from 115-125 km/hr gusting to 140 km/hr) during expected landfall tomorrow (Wednesday) even as global models tracking the powerful cyclone pointed to a well-organised storm with a well-developed and clearly defined ‘eye’ even as it continued to strengthen off the Andhra Pradesh coast.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the very severe cyclonic storm had accelerated north-west over west-central Bay of Bengal with a speed of 20 km/hr at 8.30 am this (Tuesday) morning, and located it at 240 km east of Kakinada; 340 km east-southeast of Machilipatnam; (both Andhra Pradesh); 370 km south of Gopalpur (Odisha); and 410 km east of Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh). 

Landfall tomorrow

It may move west-northwestwards till this evening, and later northwestwards to cross Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, as a very severe cyclone with maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr by tomorrow forenoon. 

Google DeepMind has once again upgraded to 100 per cent (from 83 per cent yesterday) the probability of Arnab intensifying another round to an extremely severe cyclone. Other peer models recall the Bay has had a long history of very intense cyclones, and Arnab will only add to the long list. Citing satellite imagery, they said the 24-hours ending on Tuesday morning had witnessed rapid intensification of the very severe cyclone into what they described as a dangerous and intense storm with a ‘pinpoint eye’. 

Caveat in place

The above views are an estimate of the cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speed derived from satellite observations, rather than necessarily from direct measurements at the storm’s centre. The precise interpretation depends on the intensity-estimation method and the averaging period used for the winds. For Arnab, satellite descriptions should be distinguished from official forecasts. India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) reported intensity estimates and forecasts should be the appropriate reference for assessing storm strength near coast.

Evidences showing

Global models noted the cyclone showed signs of continued strengthening through Monday night including a ‘pinpoint eye’, and may not have reached its peak intensity yet. Evidences may be showing already, as in central pressure falling, the circulation tightening, and eyewall thunderstorms becoming more vigorous and organised. Eyewall is the ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye of a cyclone, and its most violent part, where the strongest winds and some of the heaviest rainfall occur.

Pinpoint ‘eye’

The eye is the relatively calm, often cloud-free or less-cloudy region near the cyclone’s centre. A ‘pinpoint eye’ means the eye is exceptionally small, sharply defined and clearly distinguishable in satellite imagery. A well-defined eye often indicates that the cyclone has developed a mature, tightly organised circulation. It can be associated with a strong pressure gradient and very powerful winds in the eyewall.

However, a small eye does not automatically mean the cyclone will continue intensifying. Some powerful cyclones undergo eyewall replacement cycles, in which the original eyewall is replaced by a larger one, temporarily changing the storm’s structure and intensity. Warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant moisture, low vertical wind shear and efficient atmospheric outflow can favour cyclone intensification. Conversely, increasing wind shear or cooler ocean water stirred up by the cyclone can slow or reverse the process.

Dense CDO canopy 

Satellite imagery also pointed to deep convection in the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) canopy. It refers to the dense mass of high cloud that forms over and around the centre of a cyclone, often obscuring its inner circulation in ordinary satellite images. Deep convection refers to powerful thunderstorms in which warm, moist air rises high into the atmosphere, producing towering clouds and releasing latent heat as water vapour condenses. When deep convection is persistent and well-organised within this canopy, it can indicate that the cyclone is efficiently drawing energy from the warm ocean and strengthening its circulation.

The distribution of these thunderstorms matters. Deep convection concentrated around the eye and eyewall, together with a symmetrical cloud pattern, can be a sign of a strengthening cyclone. Satellite imagery alone, however, cannot establish the exact wind speed or guarantee further intensification. 

Published on October 27, 2026

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